New nuclear economics: how to estimate risks?
Date
14 décembre 2016Lieu
Salle Raymond Aron - Université Paris Dauphine-PSLDescription
PROGRAMME
The Seminar on Research in Energy Economics at Paris-Sciences-Lettres (PSL) is jointly organized by the CERNA (MINES PARIS TECH), the CGEMP (Université Paris-Dauphine), the Chaire European Electricity Markets (Université Paris-Dauphine), and i3 (l’Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation), members of PSL. It is animated by François LEVEQUE (MINES PARIS TECH), Dominique FINON (Chaire European Electricity Markets, CNRS-CIRED) and Patrice GEOFFRON (Director, CGEMP, Université Paris-Dauphine).
Marco Cometto, Senior Economist, Nuclear Energy Agency of OECD
Nuclear New Build: Institutional and Regulatory Conditions for Gaining in Efficiency into Financing and Project Management
(From OECD/NEA report, Nuclear New Build: Insights into Financing and Project Management (August 2015) co-authored with Jan-Horst Keppler).
Presentation
This presentation will identify perspectives for commercially and economically sustainable new build in two areas (i) Managing long-term electricity price risk and allocating financial risk among stakeholders, and (ii) Project and supply chain management. It will insist on the issue of the NPV and price and technology risk management, given high fixed cost of the technology in different types of electricity industry regimes. It will emphasize the important specificities of countries keeping open the nuclear option between EU countries, other OECD countries, Russia and emerging countries with strong industrial policies.
Romain Bizet (PhD student, CERNA, Mines ParisTech)
Ambiguity Aversion and the Expected Cost of Rare Energy Disasters: an Application to Nuclear Power Accidents
(I3/CERNA Working Papers, 16-CER-01, co-authored with François Lévêque).
Presentation
Assessing the risks of rare disasters due to the production of energy is paramount when making energy policy decisions. Yet, the costs associated with these risks are most often not calculable due to the high uncertainties that characterize their potential consequences. In this paper, we propose a non-Bayesian method for the calculation of the expected cost of rare energy disasters that accounts for the ambiguity that characterizes the probabilities of these events. Ambiguity is defined as the existence of multiple and conflicting sources of information regarding the probabilities associated with the events. We then apply this method to the particular case of nuclear accidents in new builds. Our results suggests that the upper-bound of the expected cost of such accidents is: 1.7 €/MWh, which is consistent with most of the recent estimates.